Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
